Canadians waking up to find themselves in a country with a minority government can be forgiven for being a little bit confused. It’s been a few years since we had one.
Although for a while there, they were all the rage.
The last 20 elections, going back to the 1950s, resulted in nine minority governments, including a stretch between 2004 and 2011 where Canada was ruled entirely by minority governments, first Paul Martin and then under Stephen Harper.
While minority governments can be confusing, with pundits discussing coalitions and various things, it is, fundamentally quite simple.
In all governments in Canada, the party that wins the most seats forms the government. Where that issue becomes tricky is when that number of seats doesn’t give the government enough votes to pass all legislation it wants to, in our current case 170, or a majority.
Without a majority, any government becomes susceptible to a non-confidence vote, which simply involves a majority of MPs voting they have “no confidence” in the current government to continue serving.
Generally speaking, that results in the governor general calling another election. In order to avoid that, the party in power needs to get support from other parties.
That can come in a number of forms, from a formal agreement between two parties to less formal agreements to simply dealing with the issue on a case by case basis, which tends to make things exciting because no one really knows when a non-confidence vote might take place.
In Canada, official coalitions – while common elsewhere – are extremely rare. More likely is some form of agreement between the Liberals and one of the other parties that agrees to support them on major issues, or simply making arrangements on the fly as they arise.
Stephen Harper used that approach – successfully to manage back to back Conservative governments from 2006 to 2011.
What makes things particularly interesting this time is that for the first time, the party in power has choices regarding who to form agreements with.
Either the NDP or the Bloc Quebecois can give the Liberals the number of seats they need. Or, possibly both, opening the door for the government to operate multiple agreements and potentially moving forward for longer than might be otherwise expected.
For example, the Liberals could garner NDP support for something like pharmacare, but then turn around and make a deal with the Bloc over the Trans Mountain pipeline, which the NDP has soundly rejected (as has the Bloc, but for concessions to state powers, they might bend.)
At the end of the day, most experts agree the success or failure of a minority government depends on how at least some of the leaders involved are willing to work together.
They also agree minority governments don’t last as long either, meaning Canadians could be back to the polls sooner rather than later.
In Ontario municipalities are slated to go back to the polls three years from now, as is the province, making it unlikely any federal party would want to pile on a third election within a 12-month time span.
Meaning be prepared to endure all this over again likely within two years. Unless the Liberals can truly work some magic to get a full four years out of whatever caucus, coalition or partnership they manage to come up with.
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